Preparing for looming national cyber security threats in 2026 and beyond
The only constant in cyber security is change. And as we enter a new year, this is particularly true when examining the increasingly challenging global threat landscape. Cyber threats that were once isolated and opportunistic have evolved into powerful tools of national strategy, deployed by foreign governments, criminal organizations and ideological groups.
Check Point Technology’s new report, “Threats to the Homeland: Cyber Operations Targeting US Government and Critical Infrastructure,” analyzes the shifting nature of cyber threats and offers measures to future-proof defenses against attacks that are only growing in scope and sophistication.
Below are several key takeaways and strategic recommendations for cyber leaders as they continue to fortify the nation’s defenses.
Cyber attacks are now tools of geopolitics
Cyber operations have become a critical component of geopolitical competition. When the Geopolitical Risk Index spikes, the number of cyber incidents targeting U.S. government systems and critical infrastructure increases by 35-45% within months.
And these attacks are no longer limited to intelligence gathering or minor disruption; they are now tools used to shape political dynamics. Foreign adversaries deploy cyber operations to signal their intentions, undermine U.S. confidence, and prepare for future conflicts by manipulating the digital battlefield. Rather than aiming for immediate chaos, many cyber actors now seek to apply pressure without triggering open conflict. This strategic shift marks a crucial change in how nations use cyber tools and should be closely monitored moving ahead.
Attackers are positioning for long-term access not quick wins
Attack strategies are changing from targeted, quick-win attacks to those that unlock long-term, undetected access to critical systems. Groups like Volt Typhoon and APT41, which are believed to be linked to Chinese state-sponsored cyber operations, are known for infiltrating high-value targets such as power grids, telecommunications networks and federal systems. But rather than striking quickly, they often lay dormant for months or even years before they activate.
This approach of gaining long-term access allows adversaries to gradually erode U.S. decision-making autonomy and leverage their presence during geopolitical crises. The more these adversaries breach systems and remain undetected, the more dangerous their potential actions may become.
Critical sectors are becoming the most targeted
Cyber attacks are becoming focused on targets tied to national security and economic stability. Energy, healthcare, government, water systems and transportation are the primary targets for adversaries who wish to cause widespread disruption.
The energy sector has seen adversaries repeatedly attempt to infiltrate electric grids, with campaigns like Volt Typhoon’s efforts to compromise engineering workstations and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) networks within major utilities.
Healthcare has become a top target as well, with ransomware attacks by groups like ALPHV/BlackCat causing significant disruptions. These attacks not only shut down operations at hospitals, but also expose sensitive patient data. In 2024, the number of ransomware incidents in the healthcare industry increased by 64%.
The government sector has also been a high target area for attackers, with incidents like the 2024 MOVEit breach compromising sensitive data across multiple federal agencies.
How attackers break in — and why these attacks work
Despite the innovation that has driven the cyber security industry for decades, the most common entry point for attackers is shockingly simple: Bad actors exploit abused or compromised logins. Attackers also regularly exploit vulnerabilities in publicly accessible software and are also leveraging supply chain attacks. Bad actors gain access to government or critical infrastructure systems through third-party vendors and contractors, bypassing traditional security measures designed to protect primary targets.
Once inside a target environment, attackers move laterally across networks, often jumping from traditional IT systems into operational technology like industrial controls for power grids or water treatment systems. This crossover between IT and OT has serious implications. These attacks are not limited to data theft or disruption, but often successfully target systems to cause physical damage to critical infrastructure.
What threat trends to watch in the coming years
The geopolitical threats outlined above, coupled with the emerging dangers that could emerge from our expanding use of AI, pose real challenges for security leaders in the years ahead.
Several key trends are expected to shape the future of cyber conflict:
- AI will supercharge cyber attacks, making them faster, more stealthy and more automated.
- Supply chain attacks will become even more prevalent, with attackers focusing on the software development pipeline.
- Industrial control systems and OT will grow in prominence as attack targets.
- Space infrastructure, such as satellites, GPS systems and undersea cables, will likely emerge as new battlegrounds for cyber operations.
- The rise of quantum computing risks will create new threats, with adversaries potentially stealing data today in anticipation of breakthroughs that could decrypt it in the future.
These developments underline the need for a shift in how policymakers approach cyber security. As cyber threats become even more multifaceted, it’s clear that U.S. leaders must prepare for everything.
What policymakers should do
There are several priorities U.S. policymakers and security leaders must consider to chart a safe course for government and critical infrastructure systems.
First, zero-trust architectures requiring strong authentication measures need to be integrated into systems. Ensuring continuous verification across networks will be critical to defend against future cyber incursions.
Securing the software supply chain is equally essential. This should include mandating software bills of materials, strengthening vendor risk management, and improving visibility into third-party dependencies. These actions will help protect against supply chain attacks.
Leaders also need to prioritize hardening critical infrastructure systems, particularly those in the industrial sector. Improving visibility, segmentation and anomaly detection in OT systems will help mitigate risks from advanced cyber threats.
It is also imperative for leaders to invest in AI-driven defense systems, red-teaming and securing AI models. The future of cyber security hinges on securing AI — and securing systems from AI.
Lastly, policymakers must focus on building national cyber resilience, including developing rapid recovery capabilities and establishing robust deterrence strategies with meaningful consequences for malicious actors.
Cyber threats are now a core component of national security. By focusing on strengthening identity security, securing the software supply chain, hardening industrial control systems, preparing for AI-driven attacks and building national resilience, the U.S. can maintain its strategic advantage in the digital age.
But the response to these threats must be strategic and complete. As cyber conflict continues to shape geopolitical realities, U.S. policymakers who act decisively will secure the digital foundations of America’s power and influence in the years to come.
Amit Weigman is a member of the office of the chief technology officer at Check Point Software Technologies.
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